Turkey + the EU = ?
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Our time in Turkey has already long passed (that is, I left there 4 days ago…), but it was a fascinating adventure. We spent just under two days in Ankara, the time mostly filled with meetings with politicians and eating amazing meals. My colleague, Elizabeth, and I also made time, as previously logged, to visit the ancient Citadel (if you haven’t already, check out the video I took from the top; it was an amazing experience). And, the group visited the monument to Mustafa Kemal Atatürk (the leader largely credited with creating the modern country of Turkey, and whose last name, given after he successfully led the creation of Turkey, means “Father of Turkey”). We met with leaders of both major political parties (AKP, currently in power, and the more left-leaning CHP, which was Atatürk’s party but has been out of power since the early 2000s).
Much of our conversation and the myriad meetings involved discussion centered around Turkey’s role vis-à-vis the US, the EU, and its neighbors. It’s a fascinating debate, centering as it does on a country with one of the world’s 20 largest economies (and one of the top in Europe), a country with a population of over 72M, which would put it with Germany at the top of the population list for European countries. It is a tremendously dynamic country; in the last 20 years it has gone from 80% rural/20% urban to the exact reverse, with Istanbul growing from just a few million to a booming metropolis of 18M. Finally, the country borders Europe on one side, and Iran, Iraq, Syria, and obliquely, Russia, on the other, making it tremendously strategically important. It is also a country of whom approximately 97% of the population is Muslim, though the country itself is secular.
The conversations we’ve been having in non-Turkish EU countries center around a few things: fear, economics, and demographics. Specifically, the populations of most of Western Europe are aging, meaning fewer workers to contribute to expensive social support systems. However, many of these countries have also long been relatively homogenous, and have been struggling with integrating other cultures. However, the aging population means they are in need of new energy, new people, in their countries. Turkey has, for many, been the source for those laborers.
Turkey began, in 2005, proceedings for accession into the EU. Should it enter the EU, the borders will be open for free transit of people, goods, services, and money. It will also give Turkey a seat at the governing table of all the European countries, a body that deals with issues ranging from economic policy to continental security to agriculture policy. As part of the process of entering the EU, countries have to bring their institutions and laws up to the standards of the EU – a process that can be harder or easier depending on the state, will, and legislative abilities of the country in question. In the case of Turkey, they have had amazing change over the last five years, change that seems largely to be seen as a good thing, as a result of the accession process. Indeed, some people told us that regardless of the results of the EU negotiations, those internal changes may be the most important aspect of the process.
The main barriers to Turkey entering in its current form are twofold: the “Armenian Question,” as the Turks call it (though it’s also known elsewhere as the Armenian Genocide) and the Cyprus question. The former dates back to the early 1900s, and revolves around whether the Ottoman Empire, from which Turkey was born, committed genocide on the Armenian population (the Wikipedia article to which I’ve linked gives fascinating background on this period of history). The problem of Cyprus, or as the Turks call it, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), revolves around the small but strategically important island divided by Greece and Turkey and which has been a simmering diplomatic challenge since the 1970s; globally, only Turkey recognizes the TRNC. Should those two issues be resolved, the question becomes: should Turkey ascend to the EU?
The basic arguments for ascension are that Turkey is European in its orientation and society, that it would bring value to Europe, and that strategically, it makes sense to have Turkey more closely tied to the EU than not.
The central arguments against ascension are that Turkey is too different from the rest of Europe (largely, this argument seems to be derived from its religious make-up, as compared against the other, predominantly Christian-rooted European countries), and that (from the Turkish side) the EU sees it as a second class country. Also of contention is the value Turkey would derive from membership, an argument that is growing as the EU’s economy continues to struggle while Turkey’s is experiencing double-digit growth.
Interestingly, the Marshall Fund regularly runs surveys, called the Transatlantic Trends survey, to gauge public opinion on various issues on both sides of the Atlantic. Their most recent asked whether people felt Turkey should join the EU, and whether they thought it would. Overwhelmingly, EU member citizens felt Turkey should not join the EU, but that they probably would; conversely, most Turks surveyed felt membership would be a good thing but that it was unlikely to happen.
My view? Europe should invite Turkey to join the EU. It is a country of tremendous strategic importance, and it has a huge population (and eager potential work-force) under the age of 30. While the country clearly has a different religious foundation, in the form of mosques, rather than cathedrals, on every corner, but the people seem culturally to look west…the streets bustle with smartly-dressed people, prices are competitive with EU countries, advertising is similar to that in the EU (that is, provocative, very western) and the infrastructure in Istanbul and Ankara does not seem terribly dissimilar to that of many European cities. However, once the EU invites Turkey to join… I’m not entirely sure whether Turkey will, or should, agree. Indeed – if they join, their energetic young work force will surely leave for other European cities, taking with it some of the engine of their current economic growth. However, in balance, I believe their ascension would be a good thing, for both the west and for Turkey.
Here're a couple of photos of Ankara.
And another, of me, on the wall of the Citadel overlooking the city.
